Early Football Line

Some of you may not realize this but if your taking short orders on the Super Bowl you really need to be paying attention to who may get in the game. As we saw last year, the teams that go to the Super Bowl can have a major effect on the price of tickets. Location can also be a factor but we have not had a desirable location since the San Diego game in 2003, and Detroit will certainly not be a place where people will want to go to the Super Bowl just to go and get away from the cold.

I have been on Tradesports(www.tradesports.com) this morning checking out the early money on who will win the NFC and AFC. The pricing seems to be about the same as where we left off last season which as luck would have it is the way ticket brokers seem to have the tickets priced.

In the NFC the punters believe that the Eagles are the only team that has a chance and have them priced in at a 30% chance of winning the NFC. The Falcons and the Vikings are tied for runner up and are priced in at around an 11.5% chance of winning the NFC. Personally I think the Vikings and the Falcons would make smart bets.

In the AFC we have more of a contest. The bettors currently have the Colts slightly over the Patriots to win it all. The Colts are priced in at 20% chance to win the AFC, and the Patsies at 19.9%. Flying under the radar screen and probably a decent bet for one who wants to take a shot are the Pittsburgh Steelers priced in at 11.4%.

Meanwhile over at the Ticket Reserve(www.ticketreserve.com) they are selling Fan Forwards for the Super Bowl. Alpha Tickets did real well last year with the Fan Forwards owning 16 of them combined between the Eagles and the Patriots. A Fan Forward is an option to buy one Super Bowl ticket at face value if the underlying team on your contract advances to the Super Bowl by winning their conference championship. Currently the asking price for a Fan Forward for the Philadelphia Eagles is $600. If you were to buy two Fan Forwards for the Eagles at $600 plus commission it would cost you $1260. If the Eagles win the NFC you would then have the option to buy two tickets at face value of $500 or $1000 for the pair which would net you into your two seats at $1130 per ticket. If the Eagles are in the Super Bowl it is a safe bet that $1130 per ticket has you well into the money, even in Detroit.

Below are some current prices off Ticket Reserve for some of the favorite teams:

Atlanta Falcons $120
Minnesota Vikings $75
Philadelphia Eagles $600

Indy Colts $250
NE Patriots $389
Pittsburgh Steelers $259

Traders take note of how on Tradesports Pittsburgh is priced about the same as the Falcons and Vikings but on Ticket Reserve they are priced slightly higher than the Tradesports favorite Indianapolis Colts. Could be the makings of a Super Bowl trade right here in Mid June! If only Ticket Reserve were a two way market like Tradesports we could really start to get clever.

The Alpha Tickets blog will continue to follow the situation from here through the end of the NFL playoffs. We will continue to keep you updated on both markets and their respective pricing as well give some suggested trades that we will track and follow.

Until tomorrow - Adios!